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Author: aew328123

  • 2019-20 St. Louis Blues Preview

    2019-20 St. Louis Blues Preview

    Last Season: 45-28-9 99 pts (2nd (tie) in Central Division; WON STANLEY CUP)

    Key Additions: D Justin Faulk

    Key Departures: F Pat Maroon, D Joel Edmundson

     

    Top Questions Facing the Blues:

    1. Can Jordan Binnington keep up his unbelievable performance?

    Last season, the Blues called up Binnington midway through the season to replace a struggling Jake Allen, and his performance was nothing short of historic. He posted a record of 24-5-1, which for whatever is said about goaltending wins, that’s still a rather impressive team stat that Binnington played a significant role in. He had a goals against average (GAA) of 1.89, which lead the league, and, astoundingly, finished in the top 10 for the MVP award. His performance continued into the playoffs, where he was the first rookie goaltender to win 16 games. He was not all out dominant (by any means) in the playoffs, but he performed well in big games (like Game 7 of the SCF). What does this mean for the regular season? We’ll see. If he performs like he did in the regular season last year, the Blues will probably win the President’s Trophy. If he performs like he did in the playoffs, the Blues probably are not going to win the division, but they will make the playoffs, and it’s important to have a goalie that is very even-keeled in performance than spectacular for 5 games and terrible for the next 5 (which the Blues have had far too often in their history).

     

    2. Can the Blues improve their Power Play

    No. Oh, what? This is an open question? Sorry – then I guess we will have to see. Ok, the Blues power play might not be THAT bad – they had a 16.4% conversion rate in the playoffs, and were 9th overall in the regular season. The problem is that it went through extreme hot and cold stretches, which, like goaltending, is not ideal. The Blues need to figure out a way to have a more consistent power play, and my hope is that the addition of Marc Savard as an assistant coach will help.

     

    3. How will the young players do?

    Just like last season, a hinges on the productivity of new and relatively new, young players. Fortunately, last season, guys like Robert Thomas, Sammy Blais, Ivan Barbashev, and Vince Dunn all played very well. With another season under their belts, as well as the grueling (both mentally and physically) march to the Cup, there is no reason to suspect they will not continue to get better (especially now that Robert Thomas’s wrist is healed). I also look for contributions from Klim Kostin later in thee season.

     

    4. Can Craig Berube’s fiery leadership continue to inspire?

    I was very critical of Craig Berube last season – he seemed to make a lot of tactical mistakes, and the players seemed to repeat the same mistakes if there was even one game between the last time they made said mistakes. That said, winning takes not only intellect and correct X’s and O’s, but also inspiration. It’s clear that Berube offered the latter in spades. What’s also clear – and across all sports – is that the effectiveness of these words dissipates over time. There will come a time when the Blues need more than nebulous ‘leadership’ from their coach, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can provide it.

     

    5. How often should Blues fans be thanking Ryan O’Reilly?

    Daily.

     

    Ultimately, I believe the Blues can repeat as Stanley Cup champions. There is no other team that is decidedly better, though there are a handful of teams that the Blues are not decidedly better than. It will take focus, and probably a willingness to back of a little during the regular season to not become mentally and physically fatigued, but if they can maintain their focus and discipline, the Blues have a real shot at defending their title.

     

    Thanks for reading.

     

    Sponsored by:

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  • St. Louis Blues – Stanley Cup Champions At Last

    St. Louis Blues – Stanley Cup Champions At Last

    “It’s been a rough season to be a fan of the St. Louis *ahem* Blues, and at this point everyone either realizes that the team is in the middle of a rebuild or is in desperate need of one.” — some hack earlier in the season *checks notes*, oh, yes, me.

    Well, well, well, look at who’s left standing at the mountain top. Before recapping this incredible playoff run, let me first just say that I absolutely cannot believe this finally happened. Growing up, watching great teams with great players like Brett Hull (more on him later), and watching them so often fail in the most comical ways – let’s just say, it jaded me.

    This year was different – every round had at least one defining moment of adversity that the Blues had to overcome. Against the Winnipeg Jets, the Blues found themselves down 2-0 in the third period of a pivotal game 5, yet managed to erase that deficit with 3 goals in the third. Against the Stars, who quite honestly posed a very bad matchup for the Blues, they found themselves down 3 games to 2, before roaring back to thoroughly dominate them the next two games. But for Ben Bishop in Game 7, the scores of the last two games would have been incredibly lopsided. There was the infamous hand-pass against the Sharks, after which the Blues outscored them by a combined 12-2 mark the last three games. Even in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Blues came back after getting blown out in game 3, having multiple players suspended, and losing a chance to clinch at home.

    There isn’t much to go over that TXHT has not covered in the game recaps, but my hope is to convey just how much this means to the city, to me. St. Louis is a nice city, but one people don’t necessarily need to visit. However, once you live there, once you experience the people, the day-to-day life, it becomes your home – forever. That’s why Brett Hull cares so much. That’s why greats like Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Al MacInnis, and Wayne Gretzky still live, at least partially, in the city and were there every step of the way for this run. There’s also a certain kinship people have with the Blues that they don’t have even with the Cardinals – maybe the Cardinals win too much it becomes old hat? I really don’t know. But I do know that records were set for viewership and ticket cost, and almost half the population showed up for the parade. Brett Hull might still be having his own parade right now.

    But, as much as I try, I am certainly not a good enough writer to adequately convey its meaning in words, so please accept these two words as my final thought:

    Thank you

    https://twitter.com/STLBlueshistory/status/1139007682986348544

  • Stanley Cup Finals Preview – The St. Louis Blues

    Stanley Cup Finals Preview – The St. Louis Blues

    Well, I never thought I would be saying this, but tonight begins the first Stanley Cup Finals game in 49 years for the St. Louis Blues. In fact, I’d argue that this is the first meaningful Stanley Cup finals game in team history – though the Blues did make it to the finals each of their first three years, those don’t really count because they grouped all of the original six teams (i.e. the good teams) in one conference, so there was no chance the Blues would beat any team that made the finals.

    This time, it should at least be more even. The Blues made it to the final round by dispatching of Winnipeg in 6, and Dallas in 7, while coming back from a 2-1 deficit with inexorable effort against San Jose to take that series in 6 as well.

    The Blues are led offensively by Jaden Schwartz who, somewhat inexplicably, has 12 goals in 19 games after scoring only 11 during the regular season. Ryan O’Reilly is next with 14 points, followed by Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron, and Alex Pietrangelo with 13 points. Though others are not quite putting up the points that those guys have been, the Blues have been receiving meaningful, timely, contributions by the likes of Pat Maroon, Robert Thomas, and Tyler Bozak. The team, as a whole, is scoring a rather respectable 3 goals per game (though I’d definitely like to see more).

    Defensively, the Blues have allowed an average of 2.52 goals per game (including a couple of empty netters). This is pretty fantastic, and quite honestly happening during a time when Pietrangelo has not really been at his defensive best. The key for the Blues this postseason defensively has been Colton Parayko – who was integral in tempering the production of Logan Couture (which says a lot about just how good Couture is that scoring ‘only’ 5 goals last series was shutting him down).

    As far as goaltending, Jordan Binnington has given the Blues what they have not had for years (…forever?) – consistency. Binnington has a .914 save percentage, allowing 2.36 goals per game, but with a quality start percentage of less than 70% and a Goals Saved Above Average of -1.36 (thank you hockey-reference.com). These are generally pretty good, but nothing mind-blowing, and overall a bit worse than what Brian Elliot gave us a few years back, but the evenness of his play – the knowledge that he is not going to go through a multi-game stretch of just being outright awful, is something all Cup contending teams need. It doesn’t matter much if a goalie shuts out a team all four games one round, and can’t stop a beach ball the next.

    All this is nice, and it all also probably means nothing because you just can’t apply large-sample statistics to a small-sample series. So my final thoughts are best served not by proffering some hackneyed predictions, but a plea to the Blues: Just win. Please win. Do it for Doug Wickenheiser, who got us all too close. Do it for Brett Hull and Bernie Federko and Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger who spent careers here trying to win one for this city, and came back for a second career when their playing days were done. Do it for Scott Stevens who was unjustly taken away and so badly wanted to come back. Do it for Martin Brodeur and Wayne Gretzky who played a couple games here and decided to make St. Louis their home.

    And most importantly – and I can’t stress this enough – unquestionably, undeniably most importantly, do it for me.

    Blues in 6.

     

    Thank you for following TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

     

    TXHT’s Stanley Cup Finals coverage sponsored by:

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  • WCF Game 6 Recap – San Jose Sharks v. St. Louis Blues

    WCF Game 6 Recap – San Jose Sharks v. St. Louis Blues

    The St. Louis Blues enter game 6 with a chance to earn a birth in the Stanley Cup finals for the first time since 1970 (and really, the first meaningful one, and not a diluted conference title).

    The first period started out with a bang with David Perron redirecting a Sammy Blais shot to give the Blues a quick 1-0 lead. After some staggeringly good play and control, San Jose took a penalty that let the Blues’ special teams go to work. This led to an almost immediate Vladimir Tarasenko goal (dare I say, snipe), to put the Blues up 2-0. They took this lead into the second period.

    With the storm clouds over the city of St. Louis hopefully not acting as a portend, the Blues came out strong in the second, but it was San Jose’s Dylan Gambrell that added to the offense, scoring his first NHL goal, and cutting the Blues’ lead in half. This was short-lived as Brayden Schenn (finally finally) scored to bring the lead back to 2.

    The third period began with San Jose getting a power play off of a Patrick Maroon trip. The Blues were able to kill it off, though San Jose kept pressuring. The Blues seemed to be playing this period not so much to win, rather not to lose, putting up zero shots as the period approached its halfway mark. After enduring this attack, the Blues capitalized again with Tyler Bozak scoring to make it 4-1. Barbashev would add an empty netter to make it 5-1.

    The Blues will play the Boston Bruins for the Stanley Cup.

     

    Thank you for following TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

  • WCF Game 3 Recap – San Jose Sharks v. St. Louis Blues

    WCF Game 3 Recap – San Jose Sharks v. St. Louis Blues

    The St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks started out about the same way all the games these playoffs have for the Blues – without them. The Blues mustered only four shots the entire period en route to a 2-0 deficit. Erik Karlsson scored the first goal (unassisted), followed by Joe Thornton’s first of the game.

    The second period was entirely different. Alex Steen opened the scoring to cut the lead to 2-1. Thornton netted his second of the game to increase San Jose’s lead back to 2, but the much maligned (unfairly, to this writer), Vladimir Tarasenko brought the Blues back to 3-2. Now, the game got really fun. David Perron committed what should have been a delay of game penalty for shooting the puck over the glass, but it was missed by the referees (of note, it is very fun to see Peter DeBoer’s incredulous face). He then proceeded to score the next two goals to give the Blues a 4-3 lead entering the third.

    The Blues generally outplayed the Sharks in the third, with no team scoring until about 1 minute left, where Couture tied the game at 4, after a series of laughable, contemptuous icings by Alex Pietrangelo, then a poor defense play by him. I generally think Petro is a wonderful player, but he has been simply bad this series.

     

    Hey everyone! Michael here. Aryan asked me to take over and cover the overtime period(s) of this tightly contested Game 3 between the San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues.

     

    In overtime both teams would trade chances in the first five minutes of the extra period, but then on a controversial play that saw Timo Meier bat the puck with his hand in front of the Blues net to Gustav Nyquist who would then pass it to Erik Karlsson who would shoot the puck past Jordan Binnington to win the game 5-4 in overtime and take the 2-1 series lead.

     

    Clearly a hand pass by Meier, but unfortunately this is not a reviewable play and the fact that all four officials missed this call the goal cannot be reversed. St. Louis got the short end on this one and will be motivation going into Game 4.

     

    Make sure to follow TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

  • Western Conference Finals Preview – St. Louis Blues v. San Jose Sharks

    Western Conference Finals Preview – St. Louis Blues v. San Jose Sharks

    After a wild seven game series with the Dallas Stars, the Blues emerged victorious. Saturday, they continue their inexorable march to the Cup against the San Jose Sharks. Before breaking down the series, I’ll have to admit (though often considered a sacrilegious act to hockey fans), that I am a baseball fan and ardent supporter of the St. Louis Cardinals. As such, I noticed a quite interesting parallel between the World Series of 2011 against a Dallas-based team and the second round series with the Stars. Each series had game winners in this order: STL, DAL, STL, DAL, DAL, STL, STL.

    So, instead of recalling the vituperative memories of the last time the Blues and Sharks played in the playoffs, let’s focus on the last time the STL and SF baseball teams played for a premonition:

    Oh. Right.

    Anyway, back to the better sport – the Blues and Sharks finished the regular season with similar point totals, though the Sharks finished two points ahead with 101 and will start the series at home.

    The two teams met three times during the season, with the Blues going 1-1-1, including a 4-0 win and 4-0 loss in November (which, as we’ve seen before, does not really matter because that was before the team learned how to play hockey), as well as a 3-2 overtime loss, in a game without Vladimir Tarasenko.

    Like with any series, there are a number of factors that could be ‘keys to the series’, but quite honestly, there really is only one important one – Martin Jones. Jones is about as bad as Ben Bishop is good, so if the Blues cannot win this series, and score a fair amount of goals, it is completely on them. Though San Jose sports Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson on defense, neither is particularly adept at defense these days. Since Burns, Karlsson, Joe Pavelski, Tomas Hertl, and Logan Couture are quite skillful offensively, the Blues simply need to play as strong of a game defensively as they did in game 7 against Dallas, and bide their time until they get their offensive chances.

    To put how mediocre Jones is in perspective, let’s compare him to the much maligned Jake Allen, who absolutely was not good for the Blues during the season and a major reason for their stodgy start to the here. According to NaturalStatTrick, Martin Jones has a save percentage of .896, while Allen’s is .905. Allen has a GSAA of -5.91, while Jones has an astounding -22.87. GSAA is a metric that basically measures goals saved above average. While -5.91 isn’t great, it’s much better than -22. The only part where Jones beats Allen is in High Danger Save Percentage, with a paltry .806 to .796 edge.

    Of course more goes into an evaluation of a goalie than simply his raw stats, most notably team defense, but at minimum we can conclude that San Jose is not good at keeping the puck out of their own net, and Jones himself is not good when facing high danger shots. If the Blues do not score against Jones, the last thing anyone should be doing is valorizing him, because in all likelihood it will be the shooters that are taking bad shots, as opposed to Jones making great and timely saves.

    That’s basically it. Score goals. Just score goals. Play solid defense. And, above all else, don’t throw the puck in your own net:

    Blues in 6.

  • St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Game 2 Recap

    St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Game 2 Recap

    The Blues and Stars had an eventful first period, with Roope Hintz scoring early to make it 1-0:

    Suffice it to say, the Blues should not have allowed this goal.

    Dallas extended their lead to 2-0 on a goal by Miro Heiskanen:

    Suffice it to say, the Blues should not have allowed this goal, redux.

    While Colton Parayko cut the lead to 2-1, the Stars put away much hope of a comeback with Mattias Janmark helping Dallas reclaim a 2 goal lead:

    Suffice. It. To. Say…well, you know.

    The Blues played rather poorly in the second but managed to keep the score at 3-1. Jaden Schwartz scored early in the third to give the Blues some life, but St. Louis’s complete, and honestly baffling, inability to do anything on the power play (0/5 today), quelled any thoughts of a comeback, as Hintz added his second as an empty netter with 3 seconds left.

    Game 3 is slated for 8PM Eastern in Dallas, Monday night.

    Make sure to follow TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

  • St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Game 1 Recap

    St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Game 1 Recap

    Game 1 of the Blues-Stars second round series saw St. Louis take a 1-0 with a goal by unlikely scorer, Robby Fabbri. Play was relatively even through the rest of the first, and the Blues took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission.

    The second period brought more action with Jason Spezza capitalizing on a great pass to barely get the puck by Jordan Binnington and tie the game at 1. This lead was short-lived though when Vladimir Tarasenko drew a penalty on Roman Polak, then proceeded to immediately score.

    Leading 2-1 in the third period, Tarasenko scored one of the more spectacular goals I have seen:

    Jamie Benn managed to score a goal late to make it 3-2, but it was meaningless – not only because it should not have counted since the referee blew the whistle prior to the puck entering the net, but then signaled a goal, and Toronto’s review team, um, concurred, but also that they were not able to tie it at 3, despite a few chances at the end.

    The next game is Saturday at 3PM Eastern in St. Louis.

     

    Make sure to follow TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

  • St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Round 2 Preview

    St. Louis Blues – Dallas Stars Round 2 Preview

    Mike: “Ok, Blues – Stars preview, you’re up.”

    Me: “Oh…uh…I wasn’t really expecting the Blues to win, so I think I used up all the words I know in the last preview.”

    Mike: “…”

    Me: “…”

    Hello round 2, it’s been a while. The Blues and Stars met four times during the regular season, with the Blues winning just one game. Before digging deeper into the season series, as someone who has been referred to as both ‘intelligent’ and ‘artificial’, I’m always one to extol the virtues of algorithmic literacy.  I always look for hockey analysis rooted in metrics (albeit arcane, for now), rather than atavistic practices like ‘hockey guys’ simply spouting platitudes like ‘this team will win because they want it more,’ as if by fiat. To that end, Micah Blake McCurdy (Twitter @IneffectiveMath), who focuses on hockey analytics and data visualization, did a remarkable job predicting first round series (and showing that Tampa Bay was not the Cup favorite all ‘experts’ seemed to think they were). Let’s check in with Mr. McCurdy regarding the second round:

    54% Dallas, 46% St. Louis? Whatever, what does this guy know? This is hockey, not bean-counting.

    While the Stars did take 3 out of 4 games during the regular season, similar to last series against the Jets, this does not tell the whole story, because the Blues were rarely at full-strength. In the first game, on January 8, the Blues were without Jordan “sangfroid” Binnington, and this was a particularly ignominious defeat for Jake Allen:

    Though Allen did play well after he blew the game, it was not enough. Binnington did start the next 3 games (winning just 1), but the Blues were without Brayden Schenn – a critical part of the top line at the time – for both of the losses. Now I’m not saying that Schenn’s presence is going to be a panacea for the Blues’ struggles against the Stars, but he will absolutely make a big difference.

    Aside from Schenn (and the always-noted goaltending battle), the keys to the series essentially boil down to:

    1. Will Vladimir Tarasenko score? and
    2. Will Jamie Benn not score?

    Benn scored 5 goals in the Stars’ three wins, so keeping him at least relatively off the scoresheet is critical to the Blues’ success. Similarly, Tarasenko seems to rise to the occasion against Dallas, scoring 3 goals this season.

    It’s as simple as that. I’m taking the Blues in 6, and once again, if that happens, I’ll tell you that I’m omniscient (oh, by the way, the Blues won the last series, so allow me to say it: I’m omniscient), but as always, if I’m wrong, let’s not talk about it.

    Ultimately, I believe this is going to be a hard fought series, with neither team really having the upper-hand. If the Blues happen to lose, I’ll be upset, but I will not feel angry or indignant unless one of their fans happens to speak derisively about one particular topic:

    Ok. Fine. It’s on now.

     

    Make sure to follow TXHT’s extensive Playoffs coverage on our 2019 NHL Playoffs page.

  • Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues – Game 5 Recap

    Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues – Game 5 Recap

    The St. Louis Blues came out absolutely firing in Game 5 against the Winnipeg Jets and took the lead within the first 30 seconds, with game 4 hero Jaden Schwartz giving the Blues a 1-0 lead. This was a goal that Connor Hellebuyck should have had. The Blues applied inexorable pressure the rest of the first period, and it actually was Hellebuyck (to my surprise) that kept the Jets in the game.

    The second period brought more of the same, and this time the Blues benefitted by an egregiously stupid penalty by Dustin Byfuglien, who inexplicably punched David Perron on the St. Louis bench. Jaden Schwartz capitalized with his second goal of the night, though not without some controversy.

    Hellebuyck and the rest of the Jets clamored for goalie interference after Pat Maroon made contact with Hellebuyck. I can’t really say it was not interference, but the Jets’ coach wasted their challenge asserting goalie interference on the first goal, so no review took place.

    The third period brought, you guessed it, another goal by Jaden Schwartz.

    The Jets brought a solid effort in the third, especially considering they were held to 11 shots in the first two periods. They fought back and scored two goals late (from Byfuglien and Bryan Little), but it was not enough.

    The Blues move on – while most experts did not see this coming, I’ll link to an analytics guy I like to follow on Twitter (@IneffectiveMath) who did put the Blues, initially, as favorites:

    St. Louis will take on the winner of the Dallas Stars – Nashville Predators series.